UNCTAD-2018 Figure 1

The AfCFTA is a free trade agreement established with the primary goal of uniting Africa as a single trade and economic community, allowing free movement of people, products, and services similar to that which exists in the European Economic Community. Goods made in Lusaka, for example, may find a market in Lagos, Cairo, Soweto, and Addis Ababa, just as they do in Kitwe, another Zambian town. The agreement was adopted on the 21st of March 2018 and signed on the 5th of February 2021. The AfCFTA secretariat is located in Accra, Ghana. It is certain that, whenever there is a military usurpation of political power in a country, the constitution would be suspended, and treaties torn into shreds, upon assumption of office. Regional bodies like the Economic Community for West African States (ECOWAS), African Union, AU, and sometimes, global organisations, such as the United Nations Organisations, IMF, IBRD, Commonwealth of Nations, would have sanctions imposed on the new regime – a system of government that is deemed, “no-longer-fashionable”, anywhere in the world, especially in the 21st century. It appears that, as things stand right now, West Africa seems to have emerged as the “Coup Headquarters” of Africa. ECOWAS has rolled out numerous sanctions against the various military usurpers in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, where a coup d’état has recently happened.

In the last three years or so, Africa had witnessed no fewer than four coup d’etat- Sudan, Chad, Guinea, Mali to Burkina Faso. The change of regime in Sudan, up until now, is still responsible for the mass protest by the citizens that is yet to cease. This has not given room for the people to resume their normal daily socio-economic activities, which, without doubt has crippled the country’s economy, thereby jeopardising the aims and objectives of AfCFTA. One common characteristic about military rule in Africa is that whenever they illegally seize control of the government, they claim to have been motivated by the need to correct all the ills of democracy. However, history has attested to the fact that military rulers leave the country in terms of economy and otherwise, worse than they met it, at the end of their reigns.

African Trade illustration Image credit: SADC Mining and Construction News

Apart from the social upheaval that accompanies such a regime change; the lack of robust and strategic economic blueprints by military rulers constitutes a clog in the wheel of progress of the respective countries and by extension, that of the entire continent. The lack of political stability that characterises military rule is a major challenge for foreign investors.For Africa to fully benefit from the AfCFTA, it must first achieve political stability and peace. This would assure an injection of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to supplement policy-driven local and national activities to grow the sub-regional economies.

While democracy has never acquitted itself as the only system of government that has the capability to bring about socioeconomic progress, as exemplified in what happened in Greece – the birthplace of democracy about a decade ago, military rule has never been a better alternative, as those who man the machinery of government are often times ill-prepared and ill-equipped intellectually to navigate the intricacies of the interdependence and interrelatedness of politics and economy in governance. While they may get the politics right sometimes, the economy has never proven to be their forté. Where there is surplus, they mismanage it; where there is recession, they worsen it.

Captured from the Guinea Bissau attempted coup. Image Credit: Reuters/ Aaron Ross

Coups d’états are political events that have far-reaching economic consequences for the countries involved.. As it is customary of military rulers; whenever, and wherever there is a regime change, the first and most predictable casualty is the constitution. Rule by decree becomes the order of the day. Treaties that are deemed unfavourable are torn into shreds. Obligations arising from such treaties are repudiated, including bilateral and multilateral economic treaties. For instance, in the early 80s, The Lagos State government under the late Alhaji Lateef Jakande signed an agreement with a consortium of 19 French firms for the construction of metro Rail lines within the metropolis with a view to easing the chaotic traffic issue in Nigeria’s Commercial Capital. But upon assumption of office, via a coup d’etat, the Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, who coincidentally is now a democratically elected president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, cancelled the deal, without any cogent reason. He [General Buhari] said he did not want the State to acquire more loans.However, when considering the project’s socioeconomic benefits, the loan’s cost becomes immaterial.. It is therefore obvious that every political decision made by a government always ends up with commensurate, if not bigger economic implications.

This is not to say that there are no military administrations that perform better than some democratically elected governments in Africa, in terms of infrastructural development culminating in socioeconomic development. Libya under late Muhammar Gadaffi is a typical example. Egypt under Hosni Mubarak is also another. They are relatively better than some democratically elected leaders, in terms of how well they were able to address some key developmental issues affecting their countries. At this very critical juncture, in the aftermath of AfCFTA adoption, when Africa should have her foot on the path to economic greatness, anchored around regional integration, military coup is what she least needs. Africa needs to urgently move away from the culture of exporting only raw materials, and join the league of finished products exporters. This thought was echoed recently by chief economist, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), Andrew Nevin, who said; “Africa cannot be prosperous by just exporting raw materials. Africa needs to have more intra-trade to increase wealth.” Nothing can be truer. Thus ,to guarantee the true success of the AfCFTA, Africa must avoid coups and instead focus on production and value chain development to maximise the benefits of the continent’s natural resources, which are already being exploited. 

 Adebayo Abubakar is a Nigerian journalist. You can reach him via email: marxbayour@gmail.com